Convenient Interactive Computing for Coherent Imprecise Prevision Assessments

A generalization of deFinetti’s Fundamental Theorem of Probability facilitates coherent assessment, by iterated natural extension, of imprecise probabilities or expectations, conditional and unconditional. Point values are generalized to assessed bounds, accepted under weak coherence, that is, allowing the input of redundant loose bounds. The method is realized in a convenient interactive computer program, which is demonstrated here, and made available as open source code. This work suggests that a consulting expert’s fees should not be paid unless his/her assessed probabilities cohere. Keywords assessment, imprecise probabilities, previsions, coherence, natural extension, interactive computing

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2003
• Where: ISIPTA
• Authors: James Dickey
• Keywords: Imprecise Probabilities, ISIPTA 2003, Iterated Natural Extension, Mathematics, Natural Extension