Creating a Scenariologic - Design and Application of a Repeatable Methodology

Context scenarios are widely used for assessing the robustness of strategies and policies in both the private and the public sector. Royal Dutch Shell, for instance, has become renowned for it’s strategic use of context scenarios in the seventies and developed a methodological stepwise approach for scenario construction. Nowadays context scenarios have become one of the standard tools of policy analysts and strategic planners. A context scenario is a creative narrative description of a future situation sprouting from causal processes and constructed through logical reasoning. Designing a good scenariologic, the skeleton of the scenarios, is the main step for designing creative, plausible and internally consistent scenarios. A sound scenariologic is the basic requirement for good scenarios and group support systems can be of great help for designing such a scenariologic. Many practitioners and facilitators stress that except for the product scenarios itself, raising awareness about u...

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2003
• Where: HICSS
• Authors: Bert Enserink
• Keywords: Biometrics, Context Scenarios, HICSS 2003, Scenario Construction, Scenarios, System Sciences