Trading With a Stock Chart Heuristic

Abstract--The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a cornerstone of financial economics. The EMH asserts that security prices fully reflect all available information and that the stock market prices securities at their fair values. Therefore, investors cannot consistently "beat the market" because stocks reside in perpetual equilibrium, making research efforts futile. This flies in the face of the conventional nonacademic wisdom that astute analysts can beat the market using technical or fundamental stock analysis. The purpose of this research is to partially assess whether technical analysts, who predict future stock prices by analyzing past stock prices, can consistently achieve a trading return that outperforms the stock market average return. This is tested using knowlege engineering experimentation with one price history pattern--the "bull flag stock chart"--which signals technical analysts of a future stock market price increase. A recognizer for the stock cha...

• Type: Journal
• Year: 2008
• Where: TSMC
• Authors: William Leigh, Cheryl J. Frohlich, Steven Hornik, Russell L. Purvis, Tom L. Roberts
• Keywords: Stock, Stock Market, Stock Market Price, TSMC 2008