The cross-entropy method (CE) developed by R. Rubinstein is an elegant practical principle for simulating rare events. The method approximates the probability of the rare event by...
We study an approximation for the zero-variance change of measure to estimate the probability of a rare event in a continuous-time Markov chain. The rare event occurs when the cha...
Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Pierre L'Ecuyer, Gerardo Rub...
Stochastic model checking has been used recently to assess, among others, dependability measures for a variety of systems. However, the employed numerical methods, as, e.g., suppor...
We consider the problem of estimating the small probability that a function of a finite number of random variables exceeds a large threshold. Each input random variable may be lig...