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» General Loss Bounds for Universal Sequence Prediction
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CORR
1999
Springer
71views Education» more  CORR 1999»
13 years 4 months ago
New Error Bounds for Solomonoff Prediction
Solomonoff sequence prediction is a scheme to predict digits of binary strings without knowing the underlying probability distribution. We call a prediction scheme informed when i...
Marcus Hutter
TSP
2010
12 years 12 months ago
Universal randomized switching
Abstract--In this paper, we consider a competitive approach to sequential decision problems, suitable for a variety of signal processing applications where at each of a succession ...
Suleyman Serdar Kozat, Andrew C. Singer
COLT
2003
Springer
13 years 10 months ago
Sequence Prediction Based on Monotone Complexity
This paper studies sequence prediction based on the monotone Kolmogorov complexity Km=−log m, i.e. based on universal deterministic/one-part MDL. m is extremely close to Solomon...
Marcus Hutter
COLT
2010
Springer
13 years 3 months ago
Following the Flattened Leader
We analyze the regret, measured in terms of log loss, of the maximum likelihood (ML) sequential prediction strategy. This "follow the leader" strategy also defines one o...
Wojciech Kotlowski, Peter Grünwald, Steven de...
CORR
2006
Springer
101views Education» more  CORR 2006»
13 years 5 months ago
MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences
The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total...
Jan Poland, Marcus Hutter