39 search results - page 1 / 8 » Improving aggregated forecasts of probability |
CISS
2011
IEEE
12 years 8 months ago
2011
IEEE
—The Coherent Approximation Principle (CAP) is a method for aggregating forecasts of probability from a group of judges by enforcing coherence with minimal adjustment. This paper...
CORR
2006
Springer
13 years 4 months ago
2006
Springer
- In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggrega...
ECAI
2006
Springer
13 years 6 months ago
2006
Springer
Abstract. In this paper, we show that the optimization of density forecasting models for regression in machine learning can be formulated as a multi-objective problem. We describe ...
SBP
2010
Springer
13 years 11 months ago
2010
Springer
Abstract. A body of psychological research has examined the correspondence between a judge’s subjective probability of an event’s outcome and the event’s actual outcome. The ...
ALT
2007
Springer
14 years 1 months ago
2007
Springer
It has been recently shown that calibration with an error less than ∆ > 0 is almost surely guaranteed with a randomized forecasting algorithm, where forecasts are obtained by...