118 search results - page 2 / 24 » Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market |
JSAI
2001
Springer
13 years 10 months ago
2001
Springer
In this study we rethought efficient market hypothesis from a viewpoint of complexity of market participants’ prediction methods and market price’s dynamics, and examined the ...
ALGORITHMICA
2010
13 years 5 months ago
2010
We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive com...
INCDM
2007
Springer
13 years 11 months ago
2007
Springer
For difficult prediction problems, practitioners often segment the data into relatively homogenous groups and then build a model for each group. This two-step procedure usually res...
ATAL
2008
Springer
13 years 7 months ago
2008
Springer
We construct a novel agent-based model of prediction markets in which putative human qualities like learning, reasoning, and profit-seeking are absent. We show that the prices whi...
SIGECOM
2009
ACM
14 years 1 days ago
2009
ACM
There is significant experimental evidence that prediction markets are efficient mechanisms for aggregating information and are more accurate in forecasting events than tradition...