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ALGORITHMICA
2010
152views more  ALGORITHMICA 2010»
13 years 4 months ago
Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker
We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive com...
Yiling Chen, Stanko Dimitrov, Rahul Sami, Daniel M...
SIGECOM
2008
ACM
90views ECommerce» more  SIGECOM 2008»
13 years 4 months ago
Non-myopic strategies in prediction markets
One attractive feature of market scoring rules [Hanson '03] is that they are myopically strategyproof: It is optimal for a trader to report her true belief about the likeliho...
Stanko Dimitrov, Rahul Sami
AIPS
2004
13 years 6 months ago
Price Prediction Strategies for Market-Based Scheduling
In a market-based scheduling mechanism, the allocation of time-specific resources to tasks is governed by a competitive bidding process. Agents bidding for multiple, separately al...
Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason, Anna Osepayshvili, Daniel...
SIGECOM
2010
ACM
174views ECommerce» more  SIGECOM 2010»
13 years 3 months ago
Aggregation and manipulation in prediction markets: effects of trading mechanism and information distribution
We conduct laboratory experiments on variants of market scoring rule prediction markets, under different information distribution patterns, in order to evaluate the efficiency an...
Lian Jian, Rahul Sami
CSDA
2008
77views more  CSDA 2008»
13 years 4 months ago
Maximizing equity market sector predictability in a Bayesian time-varying parameter model
A large body of evidence has emerged in recent studies confirming that macroeconomic factors play an important role in determining investor risk premia and the ultimate path of eq...
Lorne D. Johnson, Georgios Sakoulis