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DAGSTUHL
2006
13 years 7 months ago
Prediction Markets: How Do Incentive Schemes Affect Prediction Accuracy?
The results of recent studies on prediction markets are encouraging. Prior experience demonstrates that markets with different incentive schemes predicted uncertain future events ...
Stefan Luckner
ALGORITHMICA
2010
152views more  ALGORITHMICA 2010»
13 years 6 months ago
Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker
We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive com...
Yiling Chen, Stanko Dimitrov, Rahul Sami, Daniel M...
SIGECOM
2010
ACM
149views ECommerce» more  SIGECOM 2010»
13 years 10 months ago
A new understanding of prediction markets via no-regret learning
We explore the striking mathematical connections that exist between market scoring rules, cost function based prediction markets, and no-regret learning. We first show that any c...
Yiling Chen, Jennifer Wortman Vaughan
STOC
2007
ACM
127views Algorithms» more  STOC 2007»
14 years 6 months ago
First to market is not everything: an analysis of preferential attachment with fitness
The design of algorithms on complex networks, such as routing, ranking or recommendation algorithms, requires a detailed understanding of the growth characteristics of the network...
Christian Borgs, Jennifer T. Chayes, Constantinos ...
ATAL
2008
Springer
13 years 8 months ago
Zero-intelligence agents in prediction markets
We construct a novel agent-based model of prediction markets in which putative human qualities like learning, reasoning, and profit-seeking are absent. We show that the prices whi...
Abraham Othman