ATAL
2010
Springer
13 years 5 months ago
2010
Springer
We consider (prediction) markets where myopic agents sequentially interact with an automated market maker. We show a broad negative result: by varying the order of participation, ...
ATAL
2008
Springer
13 years 6 months ago
2008
Springer
We construct a novel agent-based model of prediction markets in which putative human qualities like learning, reasoning, and profit-seeking are absent. We show that the prices whi...
SIGECOM
2010
ACM
13 years 9 months ago
2010
ACM
Citing recent successes in forecasting elections, movies, products, and other outcomes, prediction market advocates call for widespread use of market-based methods for government ...
WINE
2009
Springer
13 years 11 months ago
2009
Springer
We study the problem of designing prediction markets for random variables with continuous or countably infinite outcomes on the real line. Our interval betting languages allow tra...
WINE
2009
Springer
13 years 11 months ago
2009
Springer
A potential downside of prediction markets is that they may incentivize agents to take undesirable actions in the real world. For example, a prediction market for whether a terrori...
AMMA
2009
Springer
13 years 11 months ago
2009
Springer
Abstract. We present Turing Trade, a web-based game that is a hybrid of a Turing test and a prediction market. In this game, there is a mystery conversation partner, the “target,...