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» Zero-intelligence agents in prediction markets
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ARGMAS
2008
Springer
13 years 7 months ago
Argumentation-Based Information Exchange in Prediction Markets
Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how argumentation processes among a group of agents may affect the outcome of group judgments. In particular we will focus on ...
Santiago Ontañón, Enric Plaza
GECCO
2007
Springer
214views Optimization» more  GECCO 2007»
13 years 11 months ago
Portfolio allocation using XCS experts in technical analysis, market conditions and options market
Schulenburg [15] first proposed the idea to model different trader types by supplying different input information sets to a group of homogenous LCS agent. Gershoff [12] investigat...
Sor Ying (Byron) Wong, Sonia Schulenburg
AAAI
2008
13 years 7 months ago
Yoopick: A Combinatorial Sports Prediction Market
We describe Yoopick, a combinatorial sports prediction market that implements a flexible betting language, and in turn facilitates fine-grained probabilistic estimation of outcome...
Sharad Goel, David Pennock, Daniel M. Reeves, Cong...
ATAL
2009
Springer
14 years 1 days ago
Combinatorial prediction markets for event hierarchies
We study combinatorial prediction markets where agents bet on the sum of values at any tree node in a hierarchy of events, for example the sum of page views among all the children...
Mingyu Guo, David M. Pennock
WINE
2009
Springer
111views Economy» more  WINE 2009»
14 years 1 days ago
Prediction Mechanisms That Do Not Incentivize Undesirable Actions
A potential downside of prediction markets is that they may incentivize agents to take undesirable actions in the real world. For example, a prediction market for whether a terrori...
Peng Shi, Vincent Conitzer, Mingyu Guo