Testing Exchangeability On-Line

14 years 5 months ago
Testing Exchangeability On-Line
The majority of theoretical work in machine learning is done under the assumption of exchangeability: essentially, it is assumed that the examples are generated from the same probability distribution independently. This paper is concerned with the problem of testing the exchangeability assumption in the on-line mode: examples are observed one by one and the goal is to monitor on-line the strength of evidence against the hypothesis of exchangeability. We introduce the notion of exchangeability martingales, which are online procedures for detecting deviations from exchangeability; in essence, they are betting schemes that never risk bankruptcy and are fair under the hypothesis of exchangeability. Some specific exchangeability martingales are constructed using Transductive Confidence Machine. We report experimental results showing their performance on the USPS benchmark data set of hand-written digits (known to be somewhat heterogeneous); one of them multiplies the initial capital by mor...
Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alexander Gammerm
Added 17 Nov 2009
Updated 17 Nov 2009
Type Conference
Year 2003
Where ICML
Authors Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alexander Gammerman
Comments (0)