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MANSCI
2007
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14 years 2 days ago
Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters
Probability forecasters who are rewarded via a proper scoring rule may care not only about the score, but also about their performance relative to other forecasters. We model this...
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Robert L. Winkler
ATAL
2010
Springer
14 years 1 months ago
Decision rules and decision markets
We explore settings where a principal must make a decision about which action to take to achieve a desired outcome. The principal elicits the probability of achieving the outcome ...
Abraham Othman, Tuomas Sandholm
ECAI
2008
Springer
14 years 2 months ago
A Truthful Two-Stage Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilistic Estimates with Unknown Costs
This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that motivates selfish rational agents to make a costly probabilistic estim...
Athanasios Papakonstantinou, Alex Rogers, Enrico H...
ATAL
2008
Springer
14 years 2 months ago
Automated design of scoring rules by learning from examples
Scoring rules are a broad and concisely-representable class of voting rules which includes, for example, Plurality and Borda. Our main result asserts that the class of scoring rul...
Ariel D. Procaccia, Aviv Zohar, Jeffrey S. Rosensc...
ATAL
2006
Springer
14 years 4 months ago
Robust mechanisms for information elicitation
We study information elicitation mechanisms in which a principal agent attempts to elicit the private information of other agents using a carefully selected payment scheme based o...
Aviv Zohar, Jeffrey S. Rosenschein
MLCW
2005
Springer
14 years 5 months ago
Lessons Learned in the Challenge: Making Predictions and Scoring Them
In this paper we present lessons learned in the Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Challenge. We describe the methods we used in regression challenges, including our winning method ...
Jukka Kohonen, Jukka Suomela